Defence sector in the Western Balkans amid the increased fear of war

The conference was opened by Igor Bandović, Director of BCSP, who greeted the participants and guests, and pointed out the importance of projects like Balkan Defence Monitor in the current environment in the region. Ambassador of Canada to Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia, Giles Norman, also emphasized the importance of discussions like this, especially in the time of the war in Ukraine and the exposure of Western Balkans to Russian disinformation.

During the first panel, the panelists discussed the trends in regional defense policies, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine. A key similarity among all the countries of the Western Balkan seemed to be a lack of transparency, while the role of the military in internal affairs continues to be particularly strong in Serbia. Vuk Vuksanović, Senior Researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, pointed out that “even though the geopolitical situation has drastically altered, none of the Western Balkan countries have adopted new strategic documents.”

“There is not much debate on security and defense policies, they are rather made top-down in these countries,” Vuksanović emphasized.

He added that the lack of a new strategic documents is especially challenging for Serbia because of its relations to Russia and tensions between Belgrade and Priština. He mentioned that the military drills with Russia started after the Kosovo dispute as a way of political signaling to the West. Vuksanović also explained that Serbia’s increasing defense budget is in line with its foreign policy and that it can also be connected with Serbia wanting to create a better position in the region and improve bilateral relations.

Andreja Stojkovski, Executive Director and Senior Researcher-Analyst at Prespa Institute, praised the North Macedonian Ministry of Defense for its transparency and cooperation with experts from academia and civil society, while also pointing out disinformation as a current challenge. He stressed that the participation in military missions was a strategic goal long before North Macedonia’s NATO membership, as a way “to change the perception of the country from troublemaker to a participant in international relations”.

Stojkovski noted the fact that North Macedonia is using the participation in these military missions to learn more about the strengths and weaknesses of their own defense systems and make smart investments.

The moderator of the panel, Stefan Goranović, was interested in whether the war in Ukraine caused a shift in policies across the Western Balkan. Arjan Dyrmishi, Executive Director at the Centre for the Study of Democracy and Governance, explained that in the context of Albania, there was no major shift in policy, apart from increasing the budget for cyber security, which he pointed out as the main threat.

While speaking about Albania’s strategic documents, he said that the main issue is coherence and that “Albania planned to revise its 2014 strategic documents, but then COVID-19 and war in Ukraine happened”. He explained that this delay illustrates the challenges that small countries face when adjusting to big global changes. Dyrmishi concluded that the lack of transparency and corruption are the main problems of the defense sector.

Political narratives drive public perceptions in Western Balkan countries resulting in a significant increase in fear of the possibility of conflict outbreak in the region, it was concluded by the panelists on the second panel of the conference. Ivana Ranković, Junior Researcher at BCSP, presented the results of a public opinion survey in Serbia on regional relations which have been published as a part of the study “War Echoes Intensify Fears – Views of Serbian Citizens on the Relations in the Region.” She emphasized increasing level of fear of conflict outbreak in the Western Balkans, the main reason behind this being the spillover effect of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the inflammatory rhetoric used by the political leaders in the region.

“Fear cannot be rationalized entirely. We are a deeply traumatized society. Many of the fears are generated from the past and are being transferred from generation to generation. It is something that we live with whether we want it or not”, said Lejla Ramić-Mesihović, President of the Foreign Affairs Council of the Member of the BiH Presidency. She highlighted that Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the countries where political power is generated from constitutionally privileged ethnic identities which political elites keep discussing, increasing the presence of fear in this complex society. She also pointed out that the issue of Republic of Srpska or the exchange of territories is not supported by citizens, but it is exploited to the maximum extent by politicians.

Olivera Injac, former Minister of Defence of the Republic of Montenegro agreed with this view and added that Montenegro is also a complex society. From 1997 there are unresolved issues between the Montenegrin Orthodox Church and the Serbian Orthodox Church, which are usually discussed from the political perspective using very aggressive rhetoric.

 „Security and religious issues in Montenegro are used by politicians and their aggressive rhetoric which causes unrealistic fear”, Injac emphasized.

The complexity of society and the aggressive rhetoric used by political opponents for daily political interests creates a moment where people do not know what to expect. She explained that it is important that the public respects all processes and understands how to work on reconciliation and better understanding rather than division.

According to the results of the survey, Open Balkan Initiative has been present in the media and the percentage of Serbian citizens who are aware of its existence doubled in 2022, as Ranković explained. Despite that, the tangible results of this initiative are missing. She added that it can be mentioned as a positive factor that there is a partial improvement in relations between Serbia and Albania, but relations between these two countries are still strained. Ramić-Mesihović agreed and added that she cannot detect enthusiasm when it comes to Open Balkan Initiative.

It can be seen that the Serbian public is extremely ideologically polarized as 40% of the public support the creation of the Serbian world, Ranković added, while Injac emphasized that the issue of awakening nationalism in Western Balkans is always present. “Fears and feelings from the 1990s are still there,” she said. The moderator of the panel, Luka Šterić, Researcher at BCSP concluded that the war never left public discourse in the Western Balkans.

The conference was part of the two projects – Transparent Defence Systems for Peaceful Western Balkans project supported by the Canada Fund for Local Initiatives (CFLI) and Western Balkans Security Barometer (WBSB) project launched by KCSS, and implemented in cooperation with the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) in Serbia and Center for the Study of Democracy and Governance (CSDG) in Albania, supported by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).