{"id":33843,"date":"2023-12-19T18:21:02","date_gmt":"2023-12-19T17:21:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/?post_type=publikacija&p=33843"},"modified":"2023-12-21T15:23:06","modified_gmt":"2023-12-21T14:23:06","slug":"serbia-s-election-results-vucic-s-sns-victory-amidst-vast-irregularities","status":"publish","type":"publikacija","link":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/publication\/serbia-s-election-results-vucic-s-sns-victory-amidst-vast-irregularities\/","title":{"rendered":"Serbia\u2019s Election Results: Vucic\u2019s SNS Victory Amidst Vast Irregularities"},"content":{"rendered":"

Snap parliamentary and local elections on\u00a0\u00a0<\/s>December 17th<\/sup>\u00a0resulted in a\u00a0surprisingly strong victory of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS)\u00a0<\/strong>of President Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107. The pro-EU \u201cSerbia against Violence coalition\u201d also had a good result. \u00a0However, the elections were influenced by\u00a0vast electoral irregularities<\/strong>, especially in Belgrade, seeming likely to plunge Serbia into another political crisis.<\/p>\n

Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s SNS won 46,1% of the votes and will be able to form a new national government on its own. The SNS also appears to have won in most local elections, including in capital Belgrade where it secured 39,35% of votes. However, the results in the capital are contested by the opposition\u00a0and the fate of the process remains uncertain<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The elections also marked an historical result for the pro-EU opposition, united in the \u201cSerbia against Violence\u201d coalition (SPN), which secured 23,58% of the votes, significantly better than the previous record set by any opposition list under Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 (that being 14% of the \u201cUnited\u201d coalition in 2022). The coalition was comprised of\u00a0several pro-EU parties and movements<\/strong>, ranging from green-left to centrist. It also won 34,26% in Belgrade.<\/p>\n

Right-wing opposition parties have been the\u00a0relative losers of the elections<\/strong>, with only one of four r lists passing the 3% threshold and entering the national parliament. However, by far the biggest surprise of the elections was the 4,69% result secured by a new political movement led by conspiracy theorist Branimir Nestorovi\u0107.<\/p>\n

More votes for the SNS, but less for the government<\/h2>\n

The good result of the SNS comes as a surprise after a year of political crisis and an\u00a0alleged loss of popularity of the government<\/strong>. The year was marked by the\u00a0largest anti-government protests since 2000<\/strong>\u00a0after mass shootings in May, soaring inflation, and escalating economic crisis.<\/p>\n

In these circumstances, the SNS managed to secure around 145,000 more votes than last year and significantly surpass most projected results. However, a close look at election results suggests that\u00a0these votes were \u201ctaken\u201d from their coalition partner Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS)<\/strong>, which had much better results in 2022 and which mostly shares its voter base with the SNS.<\/p>\n

The socialists won just 6.67% of votes, which is only around half of what they obtained in the parliamentary elections last year. This almost historical bad result of the SPS might result in FM Ivica Da\u010di\u0107\u2019s resignation, but the SPS appears to remain an important partner for the SNS on the local level.<\/p>\n

The SNS and the SPS won a smaller percentage of votes together than in the previous elections, demonstrating that assumptions about government\u2019s declining popularity were not that misplaced.<\/p>\n

Unfair election campaign and voting day irregularities<\/h2>\n

Certainly, contributing to this outcome were\u00a0the unfair and undemocratic electoral conditions<\/strong>, including irregularities on election day. Reports from the ground, documenting evidence of vote-buying and other electoral manipulations, have been steadily appearing on social media . Electoral irregularities began long before election day, when\u00a0forgeries of signatures for nomination of lists were discovered<\/strong>, without any legal consequences.<\/p>\n

These elections, in which \u00a0President Vu\u010di\u0107, although not running for any position, was a crucial figure, demonstrated that the European parliament mediated dialogues between government and opposition regarding the improvement of electoral conditions\u00a0did not bring any tangible improvements.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The biggest controversy in these elections were the so-called \u201cphantom voters\u201d \u2013 citizens from Serbia and Republika Srpska who do not live in Belgrade, but were registered to vote in the local elections by the ruling party. The opposition claims that there were over\u00a040.000 such votes<\/strong>, which was enough to give SNS the lead in Belgrade. Journalists and activists revealed a few locations throughout Belgrade where voters were gathered and taken to vote.<\/p>\n

According to finding of\u00a0the Crta monitoring mission<\/a>, during the first 36 days the ruling majority and President of Serbia\u00a0occupied 75% of the prime-time coverage<\/strong>, while the opposition was only allocated the 25%, of which opposition parties were more often portrayed negatively (27%), while government almost never negatively (1%).<\/p>\n

Right-wing opposition pays the price for disunity<\/h2>\n

Unlike pro-European parties which united in the \u201cSerbia against Violence\u201d coalition, right-wing opposition parties did not manage to reach an agreement to form a single electoral list. Projected to win around 12% of the vote in total, the disunited right-wing opposition largely remained below the 3% threshold.<\/p>\n

The NADA coalition comprised of the New Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)<\/em>\u00a0and Movement for the Restoration of the Kingdom of Serbia (POKS) won around 5,03% of the vote on the national level and 6.01% in Belgrade, surpassing previous projections.<\/p>\n

The NADA coalition took a strong anti-government stance, committed against cooperation with the SNS on any level and announcing cooperation with \u201cSerbia against Violence\u201d after the elections.<\/p>\n

The other right-wing coalition \u201cNational Rally\u201d, comprised of Dveri and Zavetnici previously touted as the strongest right-wing list, won only 2.78% of the votes on the national level and\u00a0stayed below the threshold both in Serbia and Belgrade<\/strong>. The two parties had twice as many votes in last year\u2019s elections.<\/p>\n

Unlike NADA, representatives of the National Rally put\u00a0the Kosovo issue first<\/strong>\u00a0and did not rule out the possibility of cooperation with the SNS, if it rejects the Franco-German plan for Kosovo (which resulted in Brussels\/Ohrid agreements). Some analysts assess that the coalition\u2019s poorer performance is a result of its\u00a0insufficient distancing from the SNS.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Other right-wing lists which insisted on the Kosovo issue within the campaign, Vuk Jeremi\u0107\u2019s People\u2019s Party (NS) and \u201cGood Morning, Serbia\u201d coalition, comprised of Enough is Enough (DJB) and Boris Tadi\u0107\u2019s Social Democratic Party (SDS) fared even worse, winning 0,88% and 1,18% respectively.<\/p>\n

Conspiracy theorist: a power broker in Belgrade?<\/h2>\n

The biggest surprise of these elections is the result of \u201cWe, the Voice of the People\u201d movement (MI) led by controversial doctor Branimir Nestorovi\u0107. The election results in Belgrade are such that\u00a0the future government will likely depend on this completely new player on the political scene<\/strong>, who emerged with his movement only 45 days ago.<\/p>\n

Nestorovi\u0107 is considered to be one of the best Serbian pulmonologists, and he became famous in Serbia at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, when during a press conference alongside president Vu\u010di\u0107, he claimed that\u00a0COVID 19 is the \u201cfunniest virus in history of mankind\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0and recommended Serbian women to go shopping in Italy.<\/p>\n

He was a supporter of conspiracy theories that relativized the pandemic and opposed vaccination. Topics which he spoke about include parallel universes, black holes, and\u00a0a portal to another dimension, which, as he claims, is controlled by CERN<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Nestorovi\u0107 also frequently promoted anti-Western and pro-Russian narratives in public. On last year\u2019s elections, he supported the conservative far-right party Dveri, but this year he decided to run with his newly formed movement.<\/p>\n

The way forward: Push for authoritarianism or pro-EU opposition?<\/h2>\n

The election results seem likely to\u00a0solidify Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s grip on power and diminish the chances for the return of genuine political pluralism<\/strong>. Therefore, authoritarian tendencies are expected to strengthen rather than weaken after these elections.<\/p>\n

However, a strong result of the SPN coalition means that for the first time in almost 10 years in Serbia there will be a strong pro-EU (or any kind of) opposition that could\u00a0represent a genuine alternative<\/strong>. If the coalition does not disband, it could finally break the long-existing stereotype about the Serbian opposition being weak and divided.<\/p>\n

Finally, it remains to be seen what will happen with the elections in Belgrade, where the SPN coalition declared it will not accept the results due to electoral irregularities, especially \u201cphantom voters\u201d from other cities and countries.<\/p>\n

Both\u00a0domestic<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0ODIHR<\/a>\u00a0observers came out with harsh assessment of the quality of elections, giving more credence to opposition\u2019s claims. It seems almost certain that Serbia will witness\u00a0a politically warm winter<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Amidst controversy and irregularities, the Serbian Progressive Party secures electoral victory. The emergence of a new political force led by conspiracy theorist Branimir Nestorovi\u0107 adds a wildcard to the country’s political landscape. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":33844,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7415],"tags":[11227],"vrsta":[9441],"pdfpub":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-33843","publikacija","type-publikacija","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bscp","tag-serbian-elections","vrsta-analysis"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publikacija\/33843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publikacija"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publikacija"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33843"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publikacija\/33843\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33846,"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publikacija\/33843\/revisions\/33846"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33843"},{"taxonomy":"vrsta","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/vrsta?post=33843"},{"taxonomy":"pdfpub","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pdfpub?post=33843"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bezbednost.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=33843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}