France and the Western Balkans’ EU membership: Reluctant Paris and disillusioned region

“It is very timely to have the discussion on France and the Western Balkans. A lot of things save been happening lately in this regard. One of the most important is the initiative launched by France regarding the new accession methodology”, said BCSP Director Igor Bandovic, opening the event.

In his welcoming remarks, His Excellency Jean-Louis Falconi, the Ambassador of France to Serbia said that France supports the European perspective of the Western Balkans. France made the promise to the Western Balkan countries and they intend to fulfil it.

“We intend to keep the promise to accept the Balkans in the EU, but there needs to be the sincere will of the candidate countries to fulfill all the necessary conditions”, pointed out the Ambassador.

French view – is there a place for the Western Balkans in the European Union?

Participants of the first panel have agreed that decision-makers in France falsely believe that supporting the accession process for the Western Balkans would foster the public disapproval and the fierce response of the right-wing parties. They share the view that it is time for Paris to take a brave approach instead of maintaining the status quo and further losing its credibility the region.

Srdjan Cvijic, Senior Policy Analyst with the Open Society European Policy Institute in Brussels presented the results of French public opinion on the EU membership of the Western Balkans. According to the results of the public opinion polls, although the majority of the French citizens opposes the EU enlargement, very few people strongly disapprove EU future for the region.

 “French public opposes the accession of the Western Balkans not because of the negative views of the region, but of the EU in general”, pointed out Cvijic.

He added that support for the accession process of the Western Balkans integration would not affect Macron’s chances to be re-elected, but that would be surprising to see any progress in the enlargement in the finish of the campaign.

Sébastien Gricourt, Director of the Observatoire des Balkans for the Fondation Jean-Jaures, claims that it is necessary to understand the context of the national politics in French.

 

“In order to ensure votes from the right, centrist politicians such as Macron are not willing to open the topic of further enlargement of the EU”, stated Gricourt.

 

He reminded that back in 2018 Macron was claiming that the enlargement process has killed Europe, and attempted to stop national debate about enlargement of the Union before it internally reforms.

 

Balkans specialist Loïc Tregoures claims that for the French public it makes sense to be both pro-EU and against the enlargement. However, he thinks that decision-makers concerned with the stability of the EU must be reminded that nothing dramatic has happened when Croatia joined the EU in 2013, and the same would happen with the rest of the Balkans.

 

“Candidates today are paying for Bulgaria or Hungary, because once you are a member you can do whatever. We need to encourage candidates, not discourage them”, pointed Tregoures.

 

Mr. Tregoures believes that Macron would not lose one vote if France accepts opening of negotiations with Macedonia and Albania, but because of the fear of the rise of French right-wing he is unwilling to do so. This is why he insisted on implementing the new methodology in order to find the middle way.

 

Regional view – can France become an ally on the European path?

Regional panellists were highly pessimistic that Paris would accept a more proactive stance regarding the EU membership of the region in the foreseeable future. They agreed that there is a need for a radical shift in the European approach, and that the inclusion of the WB in the Union must be seen as a continental completion rather than enlargement process.

Zoran Nechev, Head of the Center for EU integration of the Intitute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” from Skopje said that he wants to believe in dedication of the French government to the enlargement process, but that the trust is essential. He reminded that there was not any strong push from France to start accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia. He added that there were only statements regarding the French interest to see the Western Balkans in the EU, but they are not doing anything to move from the status quo.

 “If North Macedonia, as the best pupil did not open the accession negotiations after resolving the issue with Greece, the credibility of the French government is being lost”, said Nechev.

With this agreed Alba Çela, Executive Director and Head of the European Program at the Albanian Institute for International Studies.

“In Albania, France is seen as one of main adversaries to opening accession negotiations, yet there is no involvement from Paris to help the reform process”, stressed Çela.

She concluded that enlargement will help deepening the Union and strengthening the institutions.

When it comes to perception and image, she said that the dominant perception in Albania is that France and the Netherlands are against the enlargement and accession of Albania. But, she pointed out the difference in their approach – Netherlands is engaging and France is not engaged, just has a general opinion on these grounds.

“What is needed in the Western Balkans is more open communication and involvement in helping reforms on the ground, especially in the case of Montenegro. There is no reason for Montenegro not to move from the status quo, since at least there was some progress made in all of the chapters, and the regime change has sent an important impulse for the democratization of the region”, pointed out Jovana Marovic, Executive Director of the Politikon Network from Podgorica.

Marović said that the message sent to Albania and North Macedonia during the last year was the message for the whole Western Balkans. She does not expect any major developments on the EU’s agenda on the enlargement in the following period. With scheduled elections in France, it is hardly believable that enlargement will be a priority during the French presidency, stated Marović.

Similar conclusions were made by the BCSP Researcher Vuk Vuksanović.

“France will not make much difference concerning EU accession of region, since Paris is not interested in being permanently involved in the region. France is more focused on bilateral relations with specific countries than on broader approach to the Western Balkans”, pointed out Vuksanović.

BCSP Researcher said that the increased diplomatic relations between Vucic and Macron shows that Serbia has embraced France as main partner in the EU because Serbian government has lost the support of Berlin.

“Belgrade wants to use Paris as the leverage in the West for Kosovo dialogue “, stated Vuksanović.