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Three Scenarios for Balkans in 2025
What will the Western Balkans look like in 2025? Will we witness Republika Srpska declare independence, a worsening of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, and the rise of ethnic tensions across the region – or will we celebrate Montenegro and Serbia joining the EU, with good reason to hope that ...
What will the Western Balkans look like in 2025? Will we witness Republika Srpska declare independence, a worsening of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, and the rise of ethnic tensions across the region – or will we celebrate Montenegro and Serbia joining the EU, with good reason to hope that the rest of the region will soon follow? BCSP Researcher Isidora Stakic contributed to the paper “Balkan futures – Three scenarios for 2025” which explores these questions while she was an EFB Fellow in the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS).
Three contrasting scenarios for the horizon of 2025 are presented in the paper – best-case, medium-case, and worst-case. Each scenario takes account of the impact of underlying megatrends (trends that are unlikely to change by 2025) on the future trajectory of the region. The scenarios do not just spell out what 2025 could look like, they also explain how decisions with far-reaching consequences taken at critical junctures will shape this future between today and then. Therefore, they serve as a roadmap outlining the different options available.
Read the paper here.
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