The Masks Have Slipped: Serbia in a Geopolitical Pandemic

The analysis points out that during the pandemic, the Serbian government strengthened its relations with those countries in which authoritarian tendencies prevail and further set back already turbulent relations with the European Union. It is stated that in the new circumstances, Serbia was silent when it should not have been and at the wrong moments it said the wrong things, in order to reach the expected unhappy end – worse relations with its most important international partners and in a firm embrace with those that are unpredictable.

An important moment in which Serbian foreign policy presented its true face is President Aleksandar Vučić’s sharp attack against the EU. On that occasion he stated that the solidarity of the EU is a fairy tale on paper and that Serbia is turning towards “steel friendship with China”. This a signal for a general anti-European and pro-Chinese media campaign.

The authors of this analysis believe that this was a moment of revelation for Serbian politics, which one can see the belief that it can, with no consequences, juggle the conflicting interests of the United States, the EU, China, Russia and other countries.

The document stresses that despite the fact that the EU has invested more than 450 million euros into Serbia’s medical sector during the past 20 years, the country’s government decided to use the EU’s initially confused response to the pandemic in order to further reinforce anti-Western sentiment among its voters. Furthermore, the EU’s slowness to react was used to undermine and silence the government’s critics, who the EU usually sees as allies in the fight against authoritarianism and corruption in Serbia. On the other hand, by praising expected aid from China, the Serbian president also seeks to build up his own positive image as the sole guardian of the lives, security and physical health of the Serbian people. In so doing he is boosting public support both for himself personally and for his party in the run-up to Serbia’s general elections, whilst at the same time securing quick and easy access to Chinese investment and loans without public tenders.

The article also highlights the very conspicuous absence of a Serbian reaction to events in Kosovo surrounding the toppling of Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s government in March. This event exposes the alliance between the US Special Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations, Richard Grenell, and the presidents of Serbia and Kosovo. This troika has joined forces against Kurti who they see as a threat to their plans to bring about the dangerous idea of a land swap between Serbia and Kosovo. BCSP researchers present data on possible interests the three officials may have in common in reaching this agreement, which could have catastrophic consequences for the region – such as the growth of ethnic nationalism, mass displacement of people and new conflicts in the region. However, the Serbian authorities seem not to care about these possible outcomes because, with the help of controlled media, an agreement such as this could be presented to the electorate in Serbia as a win.

In the end, the analysis warns that this crisis is a turning point in global relations and that the biggest pipe dream is to believe that everything can go on as before. If Serbia does not realise this on its own, reality will force it to do so. If it wants to be a reliable and credible international actor, Serbia must not allow itself to become an object of international relations instead of a subject. This document concludes that the geopolitical struggle for influence in Serbia is something that the country is not able to handle at the moment and that by its actions it puts itself in danger of being left alone, without allies, without sovereignty and without influence.