After the beginning of a war in Ukraine, citizens of Serbia still have positive attitudes towards Russia

During the discussion, analyses of the latest BCSP public opinion survey were presented. Maja Bjeloš, the Senior Researcher at BCSP, presented the major findings from the research mentioning that the war in Ukraine didn’t influence the Serbian public regarding the question of who are friends and who are the enemies.

“Picture is frozen.” said Bjeloš.

Even though the geopolitical situation has changed in the world, perception in Serbia remains the same. Half of the Serbian population considers Russia the closest partner, putting China in second place. Moreover, the research further shows that NATO and the US are perceived as the greatest enemies, while the EU is perceived more hostile than before – as an actor driven by self-interest. Maja noted that messages crafted by the political elite, which are transferred through public broadcasters and pro-regime media, highly influence public opinion. Depending on which TV channel they watch, citizens are pro-Western or pro-Russian.

“Echo of careful political messaging over the years affects perceptions of the Serbian public more than changes of the geopolitical situation,” pointed out Bjeloš.

For the past several years, soft power is one of the three remaining Russian influences on Serbia and Western Balkan countries in general, highlighted Vuk Vuksanović, the Senior Researcher at BCSP. Other two influences on Serbia are energy dependency and the Kosovo dispute.

“Even though soft power concept presumes the ability to attract, popularity of Russia in the Serbian public is not based on what Russia is, but what it isn’t – the West. It is perceived as a counterweight to the West” said Vuksanović.

Transpiring all the history from the 1990s, Russia is perceived as a saviour, psychological relief, and counter warrior, it is seen as a therapy to trauma from the 1990s. Despite that, Vuk highlighted that, under the current conditions, taking into consideration Serbia’s energy diversification, partnership with Russia will be weakened for foreseeable future, but still not eliminated.

Maksim Samorukov, Visiting Researcher at BCSP and Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace agreed with Vuk and added that the majority of Serbs feel that they are treated unfairly, and in order to compensate for that feeling, they turn to Russia. He pointed out that Russia’s soft power in Serbia depends on local amplifiers, and without them, it won’t be able to achieve a lot.

“People in Serbia are learning from the local government statements not from Russia. The local government could someday change its tone, but for now, they are keeping the status quo. The question is, will these institutions adhere to the pro-Russian line if one day the local government decides to switch the tone? The answer is no, and the next question is what will remain of Russia’s popularity at that moment,” stated Samorukov.

Moreover, Serbia voluntarily wanted to become a member of the EU, but 55% of the public would vote against EU membership in the referendum and 80% against sanctions which is alarming.

“If you bet on Putin, you are on the losing side. Serbia will pay the price of the isolation for not joining the EU. Serbia will suffer consequences, e.g. in EU funds and resources which are limited. It’s either integration or isolation,” said Johanna Deimel, an Independent Analyst for Southeast Europe and Western Balkans.

War against Russia is a fight about defending democracy and democratic backsliding is the price, Deimel concluded.

The project is supported by the National Endowment for Democracy. The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy is solely responsible for the content of the publications and discussion.

The report from the event was written by BCSP intern Jovana Maričić.