Greater transparency on defense issues for more trust in the region

“The concept of the project of the Belgrade Center for Security Policy originated from the concern about bellicose and inflammatory rhetoric in the Balkan countries, while the Balkan Defense Monitor provides accurate and precise analyzes in response to false narratives,” stated Canadian Ambassador to Serbia Giles Norman in the introductory part, adding that Canada is supporting the fight against the disinformation campaign.

 

BCSP researcher Marija Ignjatijević presented data on defense expenditures, as one of the four topics included in the report, for six Balkan countries – Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Albania – in the period after 2017.

 

“It is possible to single out three important aspects: in most countries there is a trend of growing defense budgets, in some countries there are large differences between planned budgets and actual expenditures,” emphasized Ignjatijević.

 

Viewed individually, the increase in expenditures is most noticeable in Serbia and Croatia, with Serbia officially allocating the most funds to defense in the region, while Bosnia and Herzegovina is at the back. Among NATO members from the Balkans, there was an increase in expenditure immediately after joining the alliance, which was followed by stagnation, added Marija Ignatijević. Referring to media narratives that increased defense budgets mean a regional arms race, she pointed out that it is more about renewing and modernizing existing equipment than additional armaments. When it comes to international military cooperation, Ignjatijević specified three central topics in this area: military exercises, donations from abroad for the ministries of defense and the army, and participation in peacekeeping missions.

 

“Serbia is specific in the region, since it participates in military exercises not only with NATO members, but with Russia and Belarus, and has a larger number of bilateral military exercises,” stated the BCSP researcher.

 

According to Ignjatijević, other states included in the report are more involved in international military exercises and exercises under the auspices of regional initiatives, such as the Adriatic Charter, while their soldiers, on the other hand, are also contingents in NATO peacekeeping missions. Serbia and Croatia lead in terms of the number of their members in peacekeeping missions in the world. Ignjatijević also stated that it is common for all regional countries that the United States of America is by far the largest donor of their defense systems.

 

Igor Tabak, a military analyst from the Croatian portal “Obris”, assessed, in the context of the debate on additional armaments, that the recent contract that Croatia concluded with France on the purchase of twelve “Rafal” fighter jets, which caused great attention from the regional public, is in fact a strategic project that replaces the previously obsolete squadron in equal numbers. Tabak pointed out that with regard to the possibility of military cooperation in the region, several factors enter into the political, public and defense calculation, including the proclaimed military neutrality of Serbia, which in his opinion can be called into question, because “neutrality should be accepted by the environment as well.” , and very few countries actually see Serbia as neutral, regardless of what official Belgrade states.”

 

Dean of the Faculty of Political Sciences of the University of Sarajevo, Sead Turčalo, spoke about Bosnia and Herzegovina’s problems in financing the defense system. Turčalo reminded that since 2009, Bosnia and Herzegovina has had a frozen budget, that in the past thirteen years no consensus has been reached regarding increasing the budget, including defense, and that about 90% of the funds in the defense system go to personal expenditures, which is why it is not possible to seriously invest in equipment renewal.

 

“Although a strategic defense review was adopted in 2016, which includes modernization, and the BiH presidency approved the implementation of the modernization plan in 2017, after 2018 there was still no progress,” said Turčalo.

 

According to him, in the field of military cooperation, BiH’s focus is on cooperation with NATO member countries, but there is also cooperation with neighboring countries. While Bosnia and Herzegovina participated in NATO peacekeeping missions, the development of the internal political situation in the past period limited such opportunities.

 

Luka Šterić, a researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, presented an analysis of militaristic narratives, with a focus on Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, since they result in radical rhetoric, which can negatively affect the security of the entire region. Šterić pointed out that in such narratives, the so-called security dilemma can be observed, which means that the arming of the neighbors is seen as a security threat to the state, thus in Croatia, Serbian arming is seen as a continuation of the Great Serbian policy and points to the accompanying narrative about the Serbian world, while in Serbia, officials emphasize that the increased investment in the defense system is only belated response to Croatian arming. In addition, Šterić pointed out that there are historical parallels with the events of the wars in the nineties and even the Second World War, which legitimizes the armament, which would prevent the repetition of those events. The third important aspect, according to Šterić, when analyzing militaristic narratives is the geostrategic position in the region, which is why Serbia is constantly mentioned in Croatia as an exponent of Russia in the Balkans, with an aim to destabilize NATO and Croatia as a member of NATO, while in Serbia it is mentioned that Serbia is the only country that is surrounded by the NATO alliance, so in that sense it must strengthen its defense. Commenting on narratives about international military cooperation, Šterić emphasized that pro-government media in Serbia create a pro-Russian narrative and emphasize close cooperation with Russia, putting exercises with NATO members on the back burner.

 

In the further discussion, the participants agreed that the increase of the defense budget and the rhetoric that accompanies it are conditioned by a combination of external and internal factors. They pointed out that various foreign policy interests are realized through the purchase of weapons, but also that it serves internal political purposes, bearing in mind the traditional high trust that the army enjoys in society.

 

This event is organized as part of the Transparent Defense Systems for a Safer Region project with the support of the Canada Fund for Local Initiatives (CFLI).

 

The event report was written by BCSP intern Igor Mirosavljević.