Wings of Change: The Coming Drone Proliferation in the Western Balkans

In May 2023, Turkey delivered to Kosovo five Bayraktar TB2 attack drones to be used by its Kosovo Security Forces (KSF). The transaction was done seven months after the signing of the contract, and as Kosovo was close to hosting a large US-led military exercise, Defender Europe 23.

This transaction might signify things to come, that is, the proliferation of armed drones in the Western Balkans. The reasons for this potential proliferation of armed drones are multiple. First, they include that drones are becoming an unavoidable hallmark of the global security landscape, used by superpowers like the US and in various regional conflicts worldwide. Second, the fact that Serbia is ahead of its neighbours in the number of drones it operates creates an impulse with its neighbours to match that capability. Third, the extant regional arms control regime in the Western Balkans has loopholes related to the more modern weapons systems like drones. Fourth, the acquisition of weapon systems like drones is a powerful political instrument for local nations to increase their regional and international bargaining power, as well as for the powers supplying them to boost their influence in the Balkans. Finally, investing in armed forces, including acquiring modern systems like drones, is a powerful method of domestic political promotion for the local elites. This combination of factors makes regional drone proliferation in the Western Balkans highly probable.

This publication was produced with the financial support of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) as well as the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia (grant no. 7744512) within the project “Monitoring and Indexing Peace and Security in the Western Balkans” (MIND). The responsibility for the content of this publication belongs solely to the authors of the publication.