Political and Institutional Crisis in Serbia: Possible Scenarios (November 2025 – June 2026)

It examines the rise of a decentralised civic and student movement as the main force for democratic change, contrasted with the regime’s repressive use of state institutions to maintain power. The international community’s divided stance – between stability and democratic principles – further shapes the crisis trajectory. The paper outlines four potential scenarios: controlled repression and authoritarian consolidation; EU-mediated negotiated transition; escalation into chaos and possible governance collapse; or early elections with uncertain outcomes. Ultimately, it warns that Serbia’s future hinges on the balance of domestic resistance and international engagement.