A Quasi-Arms Race: Serbia and Croatia

In the last six years, Serbia and Croatia have been upgrading their military arsenals, leading to the conclusion that the two countries are spearheading a new arms race in the Western Balkans. This narrative is misleading as the strategic environment makes inter-state war unlikely and the process is actually about Serbia and Croatia replacing old equipment from the Yugoslav days. However, the two countries use arms procurement as leverage in their respective foreign policies and tools of domestic promotion for their rulling elites. The return of hostility is highly unlikely, but there is a political threat of cementing an atmosphere of mistrust in the region.

In late May 2021, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković announced that his country would buy 12 used Rafale fighter jets from France in a deal worth one billion euros ($1.2 billion), outbidding the US, Israel and Sweden. Croatia’s largest military transfer since the break-up of Yugoslavia. Some Western media put this in the context of Croatia being involved in “a mini arms race” with neighbouring Serbia. Indeed, since 2015 Serbia and Croatia have been at the very heart of the process, many believe to be the new arms race in the Balkans.

However, despite the impression one gets, we do not see a real arms race as the arms procurement done by Belgrade and Zagreb are part of modernising outdated military hardware that originates from the days of former Yugoslavia. However, what would normally be a regular process of replacing old and acquiring new hardware is being used by the two countries’ rulling elites as tools of foreign policy and as a way to boost domestic standing. The prospect of war is not realistic, but the problem is that military modernisation occurs when political tensions still exist in the region. Therefore, the greatest ramifications from the current sabre-rattling is one where the atmosphere of mistrust in the region becomes politically cemented.